Bitcoin has remained trapped within a price range of around $5,000 for approximately 150 days, adhering to a characteristic trading pattern. Historical data confirms that Bitcoin tends to stay within specific price ranges for extended periods.
It is likely that Bitcoin will continue within its familiar price range until the post-halving surge, influenced by the impact of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on its supply. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Bitcoin (BTC), continues to exhibit distinctive behavior, firmly holding within a price corridor of $40,000 to $44,999 as of February 2, 2024. This has persisted despite lateral fluctuations throughout 2024, challenging broader price trend expectations.
Steady and Range-Bound Trading
Even though Bitcoin reached its highest levels in two years in 2024 and experienced its lowest point at $38,500, it has failed to break free from the $5,000 price range. This consistent trading behavior has left both bullish and bearish traders somewhat frustrated. However, according to analyst James Van Stratton from CryptoSlate, this type of price movement is not unusual.
Bitcoin spent 146 days trading between $40,000 and $44,999 as of February 2, 2024, surpassing its previous range of $35,000 to $39,999, which lasted about 138 days.
Historical Trading Patterns
Analyzing the historical price movements of Bitcoin, Van Stratton reveals that the cryptocurrency has been traded within specific price ranges for extended periods. Bitcoin has maintained these price groups, ranging from $10,000 to $49,999, for 100 to 250 days.
Therefore, the current sideways price movement aligns with these established historical patterns and can be considered distinctive rather than anomalous.
Impact of Continuous Uptrend
The lack of a sustained upward trend following the launch of exchange-traded Bitcoin funds (ETFs) prompted many market participants to reassess their Bitcoin price expectations. With the upcoming halving event just over two months away, public opinion now suggests that Bitcoin may regain bullish momentum after a few months.
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As a result, it is expected that familiar price levels will continue to dominate the scene in the near term.
Michael Van de Bop, the founder and CEO of MN Trading, shares this sentiment: “My theory about Bitcoin remains unchanged. I still expect a specific range between $38,000-$48,000, as I mentioned almost two months ago. A short-term correction is likely, followed by a slight increase before the halving to $48,000.”
ETFs’ Impact on Bitcoin’s Supply
While the upcoming halving event attracts significant attention due to its potential impact on Bitcoin supply dynamics, ETFs play a crucial role in accelerating the removal of coins from circulation. These exchange-traded funds remove coins from circulation ten times faster than the rate of the new supply daily, indicating growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and its impact on market dynamics.
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